Dementia to double by 2040, driven by poor lifestyles

‘Wake-up call’ for social care as rates accelerate

Eleanor Hayward, Health Correspondent

Thursday October 26 2023, 11.30pm BST, The Times

 

The number of people with dementia in England and Wales is expected to almost double to 1.7 million by 2040.

 

Rates in the population are rising much faster than previously thought, in a trend linked to widening inequalities, obesity and unhealthy living. The number of future cases will be 42 per cent higher than earlier forecasts had suggested, a study by University College London said, placing a “considerably larger” burden on NHS and social care.

 

Nearly 900,000 people are estimated to have dementia in England and Wales but if trends continue this could reach 1.2 million by 2030 and 1.7 million by 2040. The study, published in The Lancet Public Health, looked at data from people aged 50 to 80 living in England between 2002 and 2019.

 

Between 2008 and 2016, dementia incidence increased by 25 per cent. The study said that an “epidemic” of obesity and type 2 diabetes — both risk factors for dementia — may have contributed. “Other possible explanations include worsening risk factors in socially disadvantaged groups and improved survival for patients with stroke,” it said.

 

Four in ten cases of dementia could be prevented through improving lifestyle, including stopping smoking, losing weight and drinking less alcohol.

 

The research updates a forecast from 2017 suggesting that there would be 1.2 million cases by 2040. This figure was calculated using older data that had shown a promising dip in rates of dementia.

‘Wake-up call’

Speaking of the new prediction of 1.7 million sufferers, Dr Yuntao Chen, the lead author, from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, said: “Not only will this have a devastating effect on the lives of those involved but it will also put a considerably larger burden on health and social care than current forecasts predict.”

 

Professor Eric Brunner, also from UCL , said: “Our research has exposed that dementia is likely to be a more urgent policy problem than previously recognised — even if the current trend continues for just a few years.”

 

Dementia is the biggest cause of death in England and Wales. The social care system has failed to keep up with demand, with several governments breaking promises to reform it, and charities said the figures must be a “wake-up call” to improve dementia care.

 

James White, head of national influencing at the Alzheimer’s Society, said: “Dementia is the biggest health and social care issue of our time. Without action, the individual and economic devastation caused by dementia shows no sign of stopping.

 

“We know that one in three people born in the UK today will develop this terminal condition in their lifetime. Pressure on our already struggling social care system is only going to increase.

 

“Quality social care can make a huge difference to people’s lives, but we know that people with dementia — who are the biggest users of social care — are struggling with a care system that’s costly, difficult to access, and too often not tailored to their needs.”

 

Hilary Evans, chief executive of Alzheimer’s Research UK, said: “This news highlights the enormous threat dementia poses, for both the public and for our already overstretched health and care workforce. As these figures show, unless urgent action is taken, dementia is set to place a huge and increasing burden on our healthcare system, and to blight millions of futures.

 

“With new treatments for Alzheimer’s disease — the leading cause of dementia — finally on the horizon, we are now in the strongest position yet to bring an end to the devastation this condition causes. Now we must keep up this momentum if we are to free individuals and society from the fear, harm and heartbreak of dementia.’’

Hope for treatments

Dementia is a general term for a set of symptoms caused by damage to nerve cells in the brain, including memory loss, confusion, loss of language and changes in behaviour.  Alzheimer’s disease is the most common type, responsible for about two in three cases. There is no cure, but several new drugs can slow the progress of Alzheimer’s.

 

Trials show that two, donanemab and lecanemab, can slow memory decline and they have been hailed as the “beginning of the end” for the disease. Although they have not yet been approved for NHS use, the drugs could be widely available by 2040. But this would require a radical improvement in NHS diagnostic services, as the medications work best when patients are diagnosed early.

 

A Department of Health spokeswoman said: “We are providing £160 million a year by 2024-25 for dementia research to accelerate the development of the latest treatments and technology and our Major Conditions Strategy recognises not only the importance of tackling this disease but will set out the standards patients should expect at all stages of dementia care.”

 

Source: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dementia-rates-rising-faster-than-thought-due-to-unhealthy-lifestyles-7nq7w5qgm

 

But suggest that it might be prevented through proper nutrition and you would be vilified but they’ll make a pill for it so no one will have to change anything in their lifestyle.


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On 10/31/2023 at 11:57 PM, Bob said:

The study said that an “epidemic” of obesity and type 2 diabetes — both risk factors for dementia — may have contributed.

This isn't surprising, given that Alzheimer's disease is also known as Type 3 Diabetes.

If diet can prevent Type 2 Diabetes, then it stands to reason that diet can prevent Alzheimer's disease as well.

 

18 hours ago, Geezy said:

But suggest that it might be prevented through proper nutrition and you would be vilified but they’ll make a pill for it so no one will have to change anything in their lifestyle.

True. But there are a surprising number of people who would rather take the pill so they can supposedly 'eat whatever they want'. 

This is probably the majority of people too, which is why doctors default to prescribing yet another medication instead of trying to educate their patients with regards to diet.

Judging by bout half the customers today, dementia is already here. 🤪

I know a couple folks that argue that if they're numbers are good, they can eat whatever they want. Those pills and/or shots give a false sense of security. Some day it'll catch up to them.